An interoperable EU-framework to harmonize the assessment of climate-driven changes in nuclear waste disposal site performance (INSURANCE)

Objective

The objective of INSURANCE is to develop an interoperable and harmonized EU framework for quantifying climate-dependent processes in the assessment of radioactive waste disposal system performance and create asafety guide and database to test climate-sensitivity and uncertainty of systems, as such allowing the incorporation of climate change and related extreme events into safety cases.

Description of the WP

Over the last couple of decades, it became clear that the impact of climate change cannot be neglected in assessing the long-term evolution, safety and performance of radioactive waste disposal systems, ranging from surface disposal of low-level waste to deep geological disposal of high-level waste and spent nuclear fuel. While future climate scenarios as such are widely available, the conversion of climatic information into timing, process rates and magnitudes, and model parameters, is a major gap (EURAD-2 1st wave WP CLIMATE), especially for extreme events such as water bombs after drought, extended dry and interglacial conditions, the AMOC, sea-level rise, permafrost and glaciations, and combinations of these. This brings an uncertain future for evolving conditions of radioactive waste disposal facilities, uncertainties that should be characterised and minimized in the best possible way. Therefore, this WP aims at quantifying climate-related processes that are relevant for safety cases, in a harmonized way. This harmonization involves the transfer of knowledge from advanced to starting programmes, the cross-climate zone validation and verification of climate-related processes, and the systematic compilation and testing of data from various sources and tools, including natural analogues, geomorphological archives, field data and new modelling output to be realized in this WP. A guide of best practices, with minimum requirements and acceptable safety margins will be the ultimate outcome of this WP and can only be realized by a coordinated action.

Outcomes

·    (Knowledge transfer) Cross-climate zone knowledge transfer from advanced to early-stage programs, through the development of harmonized climate scenario selection procedures and futures across Europe and sharing experiences regarding climate-related boundary conditions, processes and their treatment in safety cases. Opportunity to widen the community and establish links with, e.g., national climate institutes not typically involved in EURAD.
·    (Scientific insight) Advancing insights into the timing, rate and magnitude of climate-related processes that are of relevance for the design and safety assessment: characterising and treating uncertainties through future R&D actions. Conversion of climate scenarios and states into process rates and magnitudes, leading to better parameterization.
·    (Societal engagement) Climate change is a topic of global concern, as is keeping future generations safe from potential harmful releases of radioactive substances. A widely accepted user-friendly safety guide and database for climate impact assessment will allow to communicate in a consistent way about uncertainties and future performance of disposal systems, and engagement with civil society on this matter allows to build and maintain trust.